A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
