Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
